They even talk confidentially to each other with a waiter bending over the table.
Add to that the fact that Washington and London have press and other media veterans whose investigative talents make the FBI and Scotland Yard seem slow on the uptake, and one has a problem explaining away Jericho’s product without admitting to a Jericho.
Finally, London still had hundreds of Iraqi students—some certainly agents of Dr. Ismail Ubaidi’s Foreign Intelligence arm of the Mukhabarat—prepared to report back anything they saw or heard.
It was not just a question of someone denouncing Jericho by name; that would be impossible. But one hint that information had come out of Baghdad that should not have come, and Rahmani’s counterintelligence net would go into overdrive to detect and isolate the source. At best, that could ensure Jericho’s future silence as he clammed up to protect himself; at worst, his capture.
As the countdown for the start of the air war rolled on, the two agencies recontacted all their former experts in the matter of nuclear physics and asked for a rapid reassessment of the information already given. Was there, after all, any conceivable possibility that Iraq might have a greater and faster isotope separation facility than previously thought?
In America experts at Sandia, Lawrence Livermore, and Los Alamos were consulted again and in Britain experts at Harwell and Aldermaston. Department Z at Livermore, the people who constantly monitor Third World nuclear proliferation, was especially pressed.
The experts came back, rather testily, to reconfirm their advice. Even taking a worst-case scenario, they said—assuming not one but two entire gas diffusion centrifuge cascades operating not for one but for two years—there was no way in creation Iraq could have more than half the uranium-235 she would need for a single medium-yield device.
That left the agencies with a menu of options.
Saddam was mistaken because he had been lied to himself. Conclusion: unlikely. Those responsible would pay with their lives for such an outrage against the Rais.
Saddam had said it, but he was lying. Conclusion: quite feasible—to boost morale among his flagging and apprehensive supporters. But why confine the news to the innermost fanatics, who were not flagging and who were not apprehensive? Morale-boosting propaganda is f
or the masses and abroad.
Unanswerable.
Saddam did not say it. Conclusion: the whole report was a farrago of lies. Secondary conclusion: Jericho lied because he is greedy for money and thinks with the war coming his time will soon be over. He had put a million-dollar price tag on his information.
Jericho lied because he has been unmasked and has revealed all. Conclusion: also possible, and this option posed horrendous personal hazard to the man in Baghdad to maintain the link.
At this point the CIA moved firmly into the driver’s seat. Langley, being the paymaster, had a perfect right to do so.
“I’ll give you the bottom line, Steve,” said Bill Stewart to Steve Laing on a secure line from the CIA to Century House on the evening of January 14. “Saddam’s wrong or he’s lying; Jericho’s wrong or he’s lying. Whatever, Uncle Sam is not going to pay a million greenbacks into an account in Vienna for this kind of trash.”
“There’s no way the unconsidered option might be right after all, Bill?”
“Which one’s that?”
“That Saddam said it and he’s right.”
“No way. It’s a three-card trick. We’re not going to swallow it. Look, Jericho’s been great for nine weeks, even though we’re now going to have to recheck what he gave us. Half has already been proved, and it’s good stuff. But he’s blown it with this last report. We think that’s the end of the line. We don’t know why, but that’s the wisdom from the top of the mountain.”
“Creates problems for us, Bill.”
“I know, pal, and that’s why I’m calling within minutes of the end of the conference with the Director.
Either Jericho has been taken and has told the goon squad everything, or he’s up and running. But if he gets to know we’re not sending him any million dollars, I guess he’ll turn nasty. Either way, that’s bad news for your man in there. He’s a good man, right?”
“The best. Hell of a nerve.”
“So get him out of there, Steve. Fast.”
“I think that’s what we’ll have to do, Bill. Thanks for the tip. Pity—it was a good op.”
“The best, while it lasted.”
Stewart hung up. Laing went upstairs to see Sir Colin. The decision was made within an hour.
By the hour of breakfast on the morning of January 15 in Saudi Arabia, every aircrew member, American, British, French, Italian, Saudi, and Kuwaiti, knew that they were going to war. The politicians and the diplomats, they believed, had failed to prevent it. Through the day all air units moved to prebattle alert.
The nerve centers of the campaign were located in three establishments in Riyadh.